Apple’s 4Q23 iPhone revenue and profit will likely be better than expected and easily achieve YoY growth based on early iPhone sales results survey thanks to better product mix and shipment growth. (I still maintain my estimate of iPhone 15 shipments in 2H23 of 80 million units, while iPhone 14 shipments in 2H22 were 76 million due to the Hon Hai Zhengzhou factory shut down in November last year).
1. From the telephoto camera module orders, which represents the most significant bottleneck in the supply chain, the iPhone 15 Pro Max order for this year has been revised upward to 35 million units (vs. 28 million shipments for the 14 Pro Max last year), serving as the primary growth driver for Apple’s iPhone business in 4Q23.
2. Due to initially lower expectations, the iPhone 15 Plus may see an increase in orders as sales results are better than feared.
3. The iPhone 15 and 15 Pro fall short of expectations, and there is a likelihood of order cuts for these two models if Apple doesn’t cut their prices.