Apple may not experience a significant sales boost with the iPhone 16 series, according to trusted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. While some experts had anticipated a so-called "super cycle" of upgrades driven by the integration of Apple Intelligence, Kuo’s latest report suggests otherwise.
In his detailed analysis, Kuo reveals that Apple has placed orders for approximately 88 to 89 million units of the iPhone 16 models, a slight decrease compared to the 91 million iPhone 15 units ordered. The forecast also shows that demand for different models will be led by the iPhone 16 Pro Max (38%), followed by the iPhone 16 Pro (30%), the iPhone 16 (26%), and the iPhone 16 Plus (6%).
Although Apple is preparing between 15 million and 17 million units for pre-orders, Kuo predicts a substantial 53% to 55% decline in sales by the first quarter of 2025. He attributes this to the typical seasonal dip, but also hints that the anticipated launch of the iPhone SE 4 could further impact the iPhone 16’s performance.
The anticipated lower sales for the iPhone 16 have been backed by Kuo's observations of Apple's supply chain, where companies like Largan and TSMC have not reported any substantial increases in orders. Despite earlier hopes of a surge, Apple appears to be bracing for a more modest response from consumers.